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Baseline Emissions

GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO) for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.

"Fair share" allocation

National allocation trajectory, as calculated for United States using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.

Domestic emissions

An example domestic emissions pathway for United States, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.

Domestically-funded mitigation

Mitigation funded by United States and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.

Mitigation funded in other countries

Mitigation funded by United States and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.

Unconditional Pledge

Emissions consistent with United States’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.

Conditional Pledge

Emissions consistent with United States’s pledged emission reductions conditional on other countries’ actions.

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