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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action

    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,100 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $34 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing


Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2030 for United States

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ LED scenario Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: yes Luxury threshold: $29,233 Mult. on incomes above lux. thresh.: 1.0
Include emiss. embodied in trade: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include land-use emissions: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF)

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO)for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for United States using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for United States, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by United States and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded in other countries
Mitigation funded by United States and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with United States’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.
Conditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with United States’s pledged emission reductions conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
United States baseline emissions, projected to 2030 7,174 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)31,941 MtCO2e
United States share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2023 to 2030 period(B)35%
United States mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 11,276 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 31.9 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 157%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $1,101
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $1,101
 
United States 1990 emissions 6,608 MtCO2e
United States emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes -4,102 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita -11.6 tCO2e/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions -62%
as percent below 1990 emissions 162%
 
United States unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 26% compared to 2005 by 2025
in tonnes below baseline 1,462 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 4.3 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 21%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 12.5 tCO2e/cap
United States unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 28% compared to 2005 by 2025
in tonnes below baseline 1,613 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 4.7 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 23%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 12.1 tCO2e/cap

Data version: 7.3.3 (last change to database: 17 May 2022 12:00:00 PDT, fw-sql3--vAbDQp)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)