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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,151 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $33 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing



Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2030 for Australia

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $2,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include land-use emissions: yes Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include emiss. embodied in trade: no
Cumulative since: 1990 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 200 400 600 800 MtCO2e

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method is convergence from recent historical growth rates to long-term (2030) growth rates from the projections of McKinsey and Co. (Version 2.1). CO2 from land use is projected constant at at levels equal to the average of the last 10 years of historical data. GDP estimates are taken from IMF (WEO2013) through 2018 and converge to growth rates from McKinsey and Co. in 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for Australia using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for Australia, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by Australia and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded in other countries
Mitigation funded by Australia and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Australia’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.
Conditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Australia’s pledged emission reductions conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
Australia baseline emissions , projected to 2030 646 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)34,809 MtCO2e
Australia share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2017 to 2030 period(B)1.8%
Australia mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 614 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 21.7 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 95%
Per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $717
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $717
 
Australia 1990 emissions 545 MtCO2e
Australia emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes 32 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita 1.1 tCO2e/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions 5.9%
as percent below 1990 emissions 94%
 
Australia unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 26% compared to 2005 by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 241 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 8.5 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 37%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 13.2 tCO2e/cap
Australia unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 28% compared to 2005 by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 252 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 8.9 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 39%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 12.8 tCO2e/cap
Australia unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 5% compared to 2000 by 2020
in tonnes below baseline 113 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 4.4 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 19%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 5.9 tCO2e/cap
Australia conditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 25% compared to 2000 by 2020
in tonnes below baseline 211 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 8.3 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 35%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 2.0 tCO2e/cap

Data version: 7.0.0 (last change to database: 22 Sep 2015 11:11:09 PDT, fw-sql3--y5Dbie)   Calculator version: 3.0.0