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  •  Responsibility
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  •  Incremental costs of climate action

    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,248 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $33 per tonne CO2e in 2035.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing


Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2035 for Canada

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include emiss. embodied in trade: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include land-use emissions: yes
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
\n 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 -500 0 500 1,000 MtCO2e

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO) for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for Canada using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for Canada, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded in other countries
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Canada’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.
Conditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Canada’s pledged emission reductions conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
Canada baseline emissions, projected to 2035 761 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2035(A)37,542 MtCO2e
Canada share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2026 to 2035 period(B)2.7%
Canada mitigation fair share, projected to 2035(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 1,012 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 23.8 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 133%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms 
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $791
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $791
 
Canada 1990 emissions 832 MtCO2e
Canada emissions allocation, projected to 2035  
as tonnes -251 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita -5.9 tCO2e
as percent of 1990 emissions -30%
as percent below 1990 emissions 130%
 
Canada unconditional pledge: Canada 2035 NDC: reduce total emissions by 45-50% compared to 2005 by 2035 (low end of range) by 2035
in tonnes below baseline 356 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 8.4 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 47%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 15.4 tCO2e/cap
Canada unconditional pledge: Canada 2035 NDC: reduce total emissions by 45-50% compared to 2005 by 2035 (high end of range) by 2035
in tonnes below baseline 393 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 9.2 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 52%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 14.6 tCO2e/cap
Canada unconditional pledge: Canada 2030 NDC: reduce total emissions by 40-42% compared to 2005 by 2030 (low end of range) by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 306 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 7.5 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 41%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 11.4 tCO2e/cap
Canada unconditional pledge: Canada 2030 NDC: reduce total emissions by 40-42% compared to 2005 by 2030 (high end of range)abc by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 321 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 7.8 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 43%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 11.0 tCO2e/cap
 

Data version: 7.4 (last change to database: 24 Sep 2025 06:21:10 PDT, fw-sql3--hqKwpz)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)