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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,188 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $36 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing

Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

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Country/region report in 2030 for World

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include land-use emissions: yes Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include emiss. embodied in trade: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 MtCO2e

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method is convergence from recent historical growth rates to long-term (2030) growth rates from the projections of McKinsey and Co. (Version 2.1). CO2 from land use is projected constant at at levels equal to the average of the last 10 years of historical data. GDP estimates are taken from IMF (WEO2013) through 2018 and converge to growth rates from McKinsey and Co. in 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for World using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.

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Fair shares
World baseline emissions , projected to 2030 64,232 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)33,340 MtCO2e
World share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2018 to 2030 period(B)100%
World mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 33,340 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 3.9 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 52%
Per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $139
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $139
World 1990 emissions 36,482 MtCO2e
World emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes 30,892 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita 3.6 tCO2e/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions 85%
as percent below 1990 emissions 15%

Data version: 7.2.0 (last change to database: 14 Nov 2018 07:43:02 PST, fw-sql3--QnvdBd)
Calculator version: 3.0.0 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)