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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,188 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $45 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing



Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

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Country/region report in 2030 for Canada

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include land-use emissions: yes Include non-CO2 gases: no Include emiss. embodied in trade: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 -200 0 200 400 600 MtCO2

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method is convergence from recent historical growth rates to long-term (2030) growth rates from the projections of McKinsey and Co. (Version 2.1). CO2 from land use is projected constant at at levels equal to the average of the last 10 years of historical data. GDP estimates are taken from IMF (WEO2013) through 2018 and converge to growth rates from McKinsey and Co. in 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for Canada using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for Canada, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded in other countries
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Canada’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
Canada baseline emissions , projected to 2030 576 MtCO2
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)26,197 MtCO2
Canada share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2018 to 2030 period(B)2.7%
Canada mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 709 MtCO2
as tonnes per capita below baseline 17.5 tCO2/cap
as percent below baseline 123%
Per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $792
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $792
 
Canada 1990 emissions 395 MtCO2
Canada emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes -134 MtCO2
as tonnes per capita -3.3 tCO2/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions -34%
as percent below 1990 emissions 134%
 
Canada unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 30% compared to 2005 by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 190 MtCO2
in tonnes per capita below baseline 4.7 tCO2/cap
as percent below baseline 33%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 12.8 tCO2/cap

Data version: 7.2.0 (last change to database: 18 Oct 2018 12:00:00 PDT, fw-sql3--ez99Qq)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)