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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,248 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $32 per tonne CO2e in 2035.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing



Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2035 for World

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ LED scenario Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include emiss. embodied in trade: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include land-use emissions: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
\n 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF)

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO) for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for World using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.

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Fair shares
World baseline emissions, projected to 2035 58,625 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2035(A)38,857 MtCO2e
World share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2024 to 2035 period(B)100%
World mitigation fair share, projected to 2035(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 38,857 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 4.4 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 66%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms 
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $141
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $141
 
World 1990 emissions 31,328 MtCO2e
World emissions allocation, projected to 2035  
as tonnes 19,768 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita 2.2 tCO2e
as percent of 1990 emissions 63%
as percent below 1990 emissions 37%
 

Data version: 7.4 (last change to database: 12 Nov 2024 05:27:07 PST, fw-sql3--zenoBz)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)