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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action

    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,100 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $34 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing


Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

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Country/region report in 2030 for World

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ LED scenario Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include land-use emissions: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include emiss. embodied in trade: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF)

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO)for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for World using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.

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Fair shares
World baseline emissions, projected to 2030 56,365 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)31,941 MtCO2e
World share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2022 to 2030 period(B)100%
World mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 31,941 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 3.7 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 57%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $129
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $129
 
World 1990 emissions 31,823 MtCO2e
World emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes 24,424 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita 2.9 tCO2e/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions 77%
as percent below 1990 emissions 23%
 

Data version: 7.3.3 (last change to database: 17 Mar 2022 12:00:00 PDT, fw-sql3--cHaMfn)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)