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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,188 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $33 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing



Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2020 for China

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ LED pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: no
Include land-use emissions: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include emiss. embodied in trade: no
Cumulative since: 1950 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF)

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO)for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for China using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for China, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by China and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded by other countries
Mitigation funded other countries, but carried out within the borders of China. The CERP effort-sharing framework currently assigns the "credit" for this mitigation to the funder, but of course the terms of the mitigation would be as negotiated with the host country.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with China’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.
Conditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with China’s pledged emission reductions conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
China baseline emissions, projected to 2020 14,999 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2020(A)6,797 MtCO2e
China share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2021 to 2020 period(B)11%
China mitigation fair share, projected to 2020(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 753 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 0.5 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 5.0%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms  
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $68
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $68
 
China 1990 emissions 3,671 MtCO2e
China emissions allocation, projected to 2020  
as tonnes 14,246 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita 10.0 tCO2e/cap
as percent of 1990 emissions 388%
as percent above 1990 emissions 288%
 
China unconditional pledge (low end of range): reduce emissions intensity by 60% compared to 2005 by 2030
INDC information
in tonnes below baseline 2,860 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 2.0 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 15%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 1.6 tCO2e/cap
China unconditional pledge (high end of range): reduce emissions intensity by 65% compared to 2005 by 2030
INDC information
in tonnes below baseline 4,583 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 3.2 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 23%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 0.5 tCO2e/cap

Data version: 7.2.0 (last change to database: 18 Oct 2018 12:00:00 PDT, fw-sql3--YkQ19E)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)